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J Arp & Company Research and Trading - Growth

Chicago Board of Trade

Monthly Summary

MonthlyNov 07Oct 07Sep 07Aug 07Jul 07
3M Avg
12M Avg
Trend
Retail Sales
$Millions Y/Y%
Retail & Food Services
5.38
4.31
4.08
2.75
2.35
4.59
3.77
0.82
Retail Sales
5.39
4.28
4.08
2.51
1.83
4.58
3.62
0.97
Motor Vehicle & Parts
1.06
2.99
2.87
1.76
-1.26
2.31
1.48
0.82
Furniture & Homefurnishing
3.50
-0.23
1.32
3.14
2.45
1.53
2.04
-0.51
Building material Garden/Supply
1.40
2.45
1.33
0.17
0.10
1.73
1.09
0.64
Grocery stores
5.94
5.44
6.61
4.61
5.07
6.00
5.53
0.46
Gasoline Stations
18.98
10.22
4.97
-7.41
-6.12
11.39
4.13
7.26
Dept store ex leased depts
-1.26
-2.19
-1.55
-0.14
0.34
-1.67
-0.96
-0.71
Nonstore retailers total
8.20
3.91
6.05
4.53
3.96
6.05
5.33
0.72
Retail/Food ex Motor Vehicle
6.52
4.67
4.40
3.01
3.29
5.20
4.38
0.82
Retail ex Motor Vehicle
6.71
4.67
4.45
2.73
2.75
5.28
4.26
1.01
Auto other motor vehicle
0.85
3.10
3.05
1.91
-1.34
2.33
1.51
0.82
Electronics & Appliances
4.48
5.52
7.07
5.90
5.42
5.69
5.68
0.01
Food and Beverage
5.42
4.74
5.94
4.49
4.79
5.37
5.08
0.29
Health & Personal
3.86
4.13
6.63
5.90
6.40
4.87
5.38
-0.51
Clothing & Accessory
7.08
4.92
2.61
6.36
5.95
4.87
5.38
-0.51
General Merchandise
4.53
3.87
4.22
5.37
5.36
4.21
4.67
-0.46
Misc Stores Retailer total
2.50
4.35
3.58
6.14
4.20
3.48
4.15
-0.68
Food Services
5.25
4.64
4.09
5.06
7.23
4.66
5.25
-0.59
Industial Production
Seasonally Adjusted Y/Y%
Total Index
1.82
1.42
1.95
1.57
1.66
1.73
1.68
0.05
Final Products
1.56
1.58
2.10
2.12
2.65
1.75
2.00
-0.26
Durable Consumer Goods
1.51
2.15
1.06
1.72
4.09
1.57
2.11
-0.53
Nondurable Consumer Goods
0.46
0.76
1.81
1.87
1.66
1.01
1.31
-0.30
Equipment
3.51
2.72
3.20
2.76
3.55
3.14
3.15
-0.00
Durable Goods Materials
4.72
3.11
2.59
2.53
3.31
3.47
3.25
0.22
Nondurable Goods Materials
0.57
-0.41
0.12
-0.56
0.14
0.09
-0.03
0.12
Energy Materials
1.48
2.09
3.34
2.05
-0.65
2.30
1.66
0.64
Nonindustrial Supplies
0.26
-0.15
1.06
0.19
-0.16
0.39
0.24
0.15
Construction Supplies
1.02
0.11
-0.68
-1.43
-1.12
0.15
-0.42
0.57
Business Supplies
-0.04
-0.26
1.77
0.85
0.21
0.49
0.51
-0.02
Materials ex Energy Materials
3.14
1.77
1.65
1.35
2.11
2.19
2.00
0.18
PCE
Quality Index Y/Y%
PCE
2.27
2.07
2.35
2.80
2.04
2.23
2.31
-0.08
Durable goods
3.61
4.01
3.88
4.45
0.00
3.83
3.19
0.64
Nondurable goods
1.22
1.29
1.45
1.68
1.57
1.32
1.44
-0.12
Services
2.55
2.11
2.52
3.07
2.66
2.39
2.58
-0.19

Quarterly Summary

QuarterlySep 07Jun 07
1Yr Avg
Trend
Gross Domestic Product (Real)
$Billions Q/Q% Annualized
Gross Domestic Product
4.91
3.82
0.00
4.91
Personal Consumption Expenditures
2.84
1.40
0.00
2.84
PCE Durable Goods
4.47
1.71
0.00
4.47
PCE Nondurable Goods
2.20
-0.47
0.00
2.20
PCE Services
2.85
2.26
0.00
2.85
PCE ex Food and Energy
2.98
2.17
0.00
2.98
Gross Private Domestic Investment
4.99
4.59
0.00
4.99
Fixed Investment
-0.72
3.14
0.00
-0.72
Nonresidential
9.36
10.99
0.00
9.36
Structures
16.42
26.15
0.00
16.42
Equipment and Software
6.23
4.71
0.00
6.23
Residential
-20.53
-11.77
0.00
-20.53
Change in Private Inventories
77377.17
1131649540.00
0.00
77377.17
Net Exports of Goods & Services
-25.55
-22.72
0.00
-25.55
Exports
19.13
7.53
0.00
19.13
Exports (Goods)
26.21
6.63
0.00
26.21
Exports (Services)
4.00
9.59
0.00
4.00
Imports
4.35
-2.70
0.00
4.35
Imports (Goods)
4.85
-2.88
0.00
4.85
Imports (Services)
1.65
-1.63
0.00
1.65
Govt Consumption & Gross Investment
3.78
4.09
0.00
3.78
Federal
7.11
5.97
0.00
7.11
National defense
10.09
8.47
0.00
10.09
Nondefense
1.13
0.81
0.00
1.13
State and Local
1.95
3.00
0.00
1.95

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